Morgan Stanley sees copper in a 260kT deficit for 2025 and 600kT deficit for ...

** Morgan Stanley sees copper in a 260kT deficit for 2025 and 600kT deficit for 2026, stating little room being left for more supply disruptions**

• Morgan Stanley forecasts significant copper deficits in 2025 and 2026, with limited supply flexibility.
• Nickel, zinc, and lead prices are expected to see varied movements by 2026, reflecting supply and demand dynamics.
• Precious metals like gold and silver are projected to experience strong demand, with gold potentially reaching USD 4800/oz by Q4 2026.

Morgan Stanley's latest forecasts highlight significant shifts in the commodities market, with copper, nickel, zinc, lead, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all expected to experience notable price movements by 2026. These projections are crucial for traders and market participants as they navigate the evolving landscape of supply and demand dynamics.

Copper is anticipated to face substantial deficits, with a shortfall of 260,000 tonnes in 2025 and 600,000 tonnes in 2026. This is attributed to limited supply flexibility, which could lead to upward pressure on prices. Market participants are likely to monitor copper-related stocks and ETFs, such as Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX), for potential impacts from these deficits.

Nickel prices are projected to reach USD 15,500 per tonne by 2026, driven by balanced growth in demand and supply. This outlook suggests a stable environment for nickel producers, with companies like Vale S.A. (VALE) and Norilsk Nickel potentially benefiting from these trends.

In contrast, zinc prices are expected to dip to USD 2,900 per tonne, as LME inventories recover and mine supply growth continues. This could impact zinc producers and related ETFs, such as the iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK), as traders assess the implications of increased supply.

Lead is forecasted to average USD 2,000 per tonne in 2026, indicating a relatively stable market environment. Traders may keep an eye on lead producers and related sectors for any shifts in demand or supply dynamics.

Precious metals are set to capture significant attention, with gold prices potentially reaching USD 4,800 per ounce by Q4 2026. This projection is supported by expectations of continued rate cuts and a weakening US dollar (DXY). Silver is also expected to maintain strong investment demand, with potential physical squeezes due to low inventories. Traders might consider monitoring gold and silver ETFs, such as the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), for market movements.

Platinum and palladium are forecasted to reach USD 1,775 per ounce and USD 1,325 per ounce, respectively, by 2026. These projections suggest a stable outlook for these metals, with potential implications for related stocks and ETFs.

Trader Insight:

• Some traders may consider monitoring Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) for potential impacts from copper deficits.
• Market participants are watching Vale S.A. (VALE) and Norilsk Nickel for opportunities related to nickel price stability.
• Traders could assess the iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK) for exposure to zinc market dynamics.
• Observers are likely to keep an eye on SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) as gold and silver demand remains strong.

Disclaimer: This is not trading advice. For informational purposes only.